Moore’s law, roughly stated, predicts that computing power will roughly double due to advances in technology from making circuits, specifically transistors. In a study of the last 30 years it shows that photovoltaic cells conform to the same pattern.
The cost of solar, in the average location in the U.S., will cross the current average retail electricity price of 12 cents per kilowatt hour in around 2020, or 9 years from now. In fact, given that retail electricity prices are currently rising by a few percent per year, prices will probably cross earlier, around 2018 for the country as a whole, and as early as 2015 for the sunniest parts of America.
Smaller, cheaper, faster: Does Moore’s law apply to solar cells?, Ramez Naam | March 16, 2011 | Scientific American
By 2030 Solar will be half the price of coal electricity. Hopefully we can reduce our carbon in other ways before then.
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